Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 374 | 500 |
| October 17 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 347 | 458 |
| October 18 2020 | 2635 | 27007 | 86 | 9 | 371 | 512 |
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.3 | 4.4% | 20 | 0.17% | 25 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 6.7 | 16% | 72 | 0.53% | 101 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 12.7 | 24.7% | 111 | 0.53% | 144 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 6.1 | 13.6% | 61 | 0.45% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 5.3 | 10% | 45 | 0.43% | 65 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 5.6 | 10.2% | 46 | 0.37% | 54 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 5.6 | 11.3% | 51 | 0.44% | 65 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 9 | 4.6 | 9.8% | 44 | 0.42% | 56 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 67 | 48.9 | 100% | 450 | 0.43% | 586 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 350 | 407 |
| October 17 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 319 | 387 |
| October 18 2020 | 1032 | 16975 | 42 | 2 | 302 | 391 |
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.4 | 3.1% | 14 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.0 | 8.3% | 37 | 0.44% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 6.1 | 14.8% | 66 | 0.93% | 88 | 1.24% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 7.6 | 16.6% | 74 | 0.88% | 92 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 6.7 | 15% | 67 | 0.86% | 90 | 1.16% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 8.6 | 18.4% | 82 | 0.85% | 94 | 0.97% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.0 | 13.2% | 59 | 0.7% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.9 | 11.4% | 51 | 0.72% | 61 | 0.86% |
| All ages | 64 | 45.7 | 100% | 446 | 0.69% | 549 | 0.85% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 202 | 226 |
| October 17 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 195 | 214 |
| October 18 2020 | 781 | 11006 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 259 |
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 345 | 473 |
| October 17 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 319 | 434 |
| October 18 2020 | 3758 | 30277 | 75 | 15 | 317 | 459 |
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.7 | 8.9% | 35 | 0.21% | 55 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 12.0 | 27.3% | 108 | 0.51% | 146 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 6.0 | 12.9% | 51 | 0.38% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.4 | 13.7% | 54 | 0.4% | 64 | 0.47% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 6.7 | 14.2% | 56 | 0.39% | 70 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.7 | 12.9% | 51 | 0.36% | 66 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 7.8% | 31 | 0.24% | 41 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 54 | 43.4 | 100% | 395 | 0.33% | 520 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1625 | 2079 |
| October 17 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1562 | 1957 |
| October 18 2020 | 12509 | 223923 | 456 | 46 | 1668 | 2057 |
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 9.1 | 5% | 87 | 0.14% | 124 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 20.6 | 12.7% | 219 | 0.31% | 328 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 40.7 | 23.1% | 399 | 0.38% | 562 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 29.6 | 16.3% | 282 | 0.37% | 412 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 30 | 26.3 | 15.1% | 261 | 0.4% | 360 | 0.55% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 25.1 | 13.8% | 238 | 0.36% | 332 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 16.6 | 9.1% | 157 | 0.29% | 232 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 16 | 9.6 | 5% | 87 | 0.18% | 124 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 194 | 177.6 | 100% | 1730 | 0.32% | 2474 | 0.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 29807 | 38280 |
| October 17 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 27488 | 35388 |
| October 18 2020 | 170114 | 1665459 | 9154 | 1588 | 28284 | 37451 |
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 111 | 123.3 | 3.6% | 1214 | 0.19% | 1567 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 348 | 322.4 | 9.4% | 3196 | 0.42% | 4178 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 553 | 579.3 | 17% | 5776 | 0.76% | 7635 | 1.01% |
| 30-39 | 534 | 545.1 | 16.1% | 5446 | 0.72% | 7109 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 483 | 497.0 | 14.6% | 4936 | 0.71% | 6447 | 0.92% |
| 50-59 | 601 | 571.0 | 17% | 5754 | 0.71% | 7459 | 0.92% |
| 60-69 | 405 | 403.0 | 12% | 4069 | 0.54% | 5323 | 0.7% |
| 70+ | 378 | 355.3 | 10.4% | 3517 | 0.55% | 4552 | 0.71% |
| All ages | 3413 | 3396.4 | 100% | 33908 | 0.58% | 44270 | 0.76% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 74.2 | 68.8 | 48.9 | 38.6 | 16% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84.9 | 45.7 | 24.4 | 22.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75.6 | 27.7 | 13.7 | 13.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 33.2 | 68.6 | 43.4 | 33.7 | 11.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.3 | 46.2 | 54.1 | 177.6 | 138.4 | 6.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 55.2 | 100.9 | 3396.4 | 2510.4 | 13.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 16.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-12 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1799"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges